Yellow Card given on latest Virginia poll
It's Hump Day! Whoop whoop (Digital Underground - The Humpty Dance)
Another poll is out on Virginia’s governor race.
This one earns a Yellow Card.
It reports that the race between former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is tied 40-40.
Tied? How exciting!
But wait.
There’s more!
GRAPHICS. Oooh…must be serious stuff then.
This is supposed to be good news for Earle-Sears and bad news for Spanberger.
Actually, it’s the reverse.
Every poll thus far has show Spanberger in the lead by an average of about 3-4 points. VCU’s recent poll wrongly had it Spanberger +10.
Conducted by co/efficient ostensibly for Governor' Youngkin’s car tax cut proposal, this poll starts with the premise that Virginia is a +4 Republican state.
Nope. It’s about a +3 Democratic state.
Graphics, please!
Two errors.
Party ID and underrepresentation of blacks.
If the race is TIED 40 - 40 with R+4 in a D+3?
That’s 7 points.
Toss in a 3.3 Margin of Error (MoE)
If you math the math, the race is not tied.
This poll aligns well with the average of the others and the race is at the margin of error or generically where the state is - D+3.
Additionally co/efficient has this self reporting result from the 2024 election:
Kamala Harris 47
Donald Trump 43
Reality? 52-46
The co/efficient poll went into the field from January 18th to the 20th just three days after the VCU poll came out of the field on the 15th.
Oh then we should just average the two polls, right?
Two wrongs don’t make a right. But what the heck - go for it.
The social media and campaign email spin fest is well underway.
Bottom Line: The co/efficient poll is actually good news for Spanberger, not Earle-Sears.
But hey! It’s Hump Day and Dry January is 48 hours from ending.