Virginia Republicans vs. Math
Tears for Fears, Frasier, Lee Corso, Christmas Vacation
Former State Senator Amanda Chase is running for governor.
Again.
Republican reaction:
Democratic reaction:
Fresh off of her distant third place finish of 13% in December’s Republican nomination for the 10th Senate District, Chase is throwing her heels into a statewide primary against the GOP’s prohibitive favorite, Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and former Delegate Dave LaRock.
Chase’s recent history in Republican nominations:
2021 Governor - 3rd place
2023 State Senate - 2nd place
2024 State Senate special election - 3rd place
Like LaRock, Chase is trying to position herself as THE Trump candidate but will have a better statewide name I.D. from her campaigns and controversies than the former five term delegate.
All three candidates need to qualify for the ballot and that requires 10,000 signatures from registered voters with at least 400 in each of Virginia’s eleven congressional districts.
Deadline is April 3rd.
From there it’s a sprint to the June 17th primary.
Earle-Sears has a substantial lead in money, name I.D.,endorsements, and the full throated support of popular Governor Glenn Youngkin.
After the primary, however, the Republican winner will have basically zero dollars cash on hand, a divided party, and political headwinds blowing hard across the Potomac.
That is the complete opposite result that first time candidate Youngkin was able to muster in 2021.
The good news for Earle-Sears is that if she wins the nomination - which she is very likely to do - she will be positioned in the general election not too attached to President Trump.
If she can keep the early summer polls with Spanberger close to the MOE (margin of error), Earle-Sears will be able to attract the national money needed to counter negative narratives while also being able to attack Spanberger in order to drive down Democratic turnout.
And who knows what will happen throughout the summer heading into voting season which opens September 19th.
If she is NOT able to keep the polls close, Virginia will be looking at a repeat of the 2017 Trump Tsunami in which Democrats ROUTED the GOP up and down the ballot.
Either way, the announcements by LaRock and Chase are a net negative for Earle-Sears and the Republicans in 2025 who are already trailing in the polls.
Prediction: Earle-Sears and LaRock qualify for the ballot, Chase does not.
Bottom Line: This is what losing looks like for the GOP…
…it’s only February.
Not So Fast My Friends Part II: Elon Musk dropped $250,000,000.00 to help win seven swing states in 2024. At $35MM per state, dropping $50MM to keep Republican momentum into the midterms seems like a rounding error for someone worth north of $400,000,000,000.00.
Looking Ahead: The already underway Republican nomination for president in 2028 is WIDE OPEN.