Virginia Republican Comeback?
The Possible vs The Probable; Counting Crows, AC/DC, and Kelly Clarkson
The stunning news from Virginia’s Attorney General race shocked the Commonwealth and the country.
While it will certainly impact that race between Republican incumbent AG Jason Miyares and Democratic nominee Jay Jones, the political question on just about everyone’s mind, lips, and social media feeds is this:
Will it create an improbable comeback for Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears who was trailing Democratic nominee former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger?
Answer to follow; however, let’s dive into the math of what that would look like in order to maintain objectivity with what has to take place over the next three weeks if Earle-Sears is going to win the governor’s race.
Logic, Reason, and Money
Is a comeback possible? Of course it is.
Is a comeback probable? uhhhh….didn’t you say something about math?
In 2021, there were 3.3MM votes cast and Glenn Youngkin beat Terry McAuliffe by 63,000 votes.
They pretty much tied in fundraising with McAuliffe spending 1.7% more.
That’s almost $138MM total.
At the last report, here’s where things stood financially
See the difference in overall spending? MASSIVE.
Given the events of the last week and a half, one never knows.
Here’s where things stand politically after Jay Jones’ Res Horribilis:
The Cook Partisan Voting Index has Virginia as a D+3 state.
The Trafalgar poll is D+1 poll and I couldn’t find Cygnal’s partisan make up - which is always a concern, but for our purposes we take them at face value (slight smirk notwithstanding). Both Trafalgar and Cygnal are Republican pollsters.
PPP is a Democratic pollster and they posted more information on their poll:
That lines up with Virginia - Harris did win by 6 and Virginia’s PVI is D+3.
BIG QUESTION - has Virginia shifted from D+3 to D+1? Earle-Sears general consultant Mark Harris recently said as much on the John Fredericks Radio Show.
Still, let’s stick the AVERAGING of these polls because we really don’t know the actual composition of the electorate. It’s reasonable to average all this out for this analysis while trying to remain objective.
Bottom line - Spanberger is ahead - still of outside the Margin of Error (MOE) and had a 3 to 1 advantage in Cash On Hand (COH).
We all know why more COH is important especially at 3 to 1, but WHY is outside the MOE so important?
That’s the decision line for outside or national groups dropping in significant resources for any campaign.
The question asked is are you Outside or Inside the MOE?
Outside = no money
Inside = yes money.
It’s just the way it is folks.
2021
Based on 2021 turnout at a 6.5% lead, Spanberger would win by roughly 215,000 votes.
That’s the raw votes Earle-Sears has to overcome based on the same turnout from four years ago in a MUCH better Republican environment.
Remember, she had the highest PERCENTAGE win of the three races in ‘21. She won with 50.7% of the vote to Youngkin’s 50.6% BUT had a smaller net vote.
Youngkin won by 63,000 with 1.663MM votes total to McAuliffe’s 1.600MM.
Earle-Sears won by 50,000 with 1.658MM votes total.
Miyares won by 26,000 with 1.647MM votes total.
See what happens? (and this very important to THIS year’s comeback question)
The TOP of the ticket draws the MOST votes and not everyone votes for all three statewide races.
2025
2025 is much better Environment for Democrats because there is a Republican in the White House.
See the Virginia Curse in this chart:
Now add in that the Republican in the White House is intensely hated by Virginia Democrats. #DOGE #ShutDown
Donald Trump has lost the last three presidential elections by 10, 10, and 6 points or an average of 8.6%.
What was Spanberger’s RCP Average lead just before Jay Jones Res Horribilis?
8.3%
That’s before we try to guess what the turnout INCREASE will be from 2021.
History on turnout numbers since 2008 here in Virginia:
Gubernatorial year registered voters (RV) DROP from the previous year’s presidential election, BUT the RVs are higher than the previous gubernatorial cycle.
The turnout % - last four gubernatorial cycles has gone 40.4% - 43% - 47.6% and in 2021 almost 55% respectively.
Not only did Republican Glenn Youngkin win with over 50% of the vote, he did it by cranking up GOP turnout but had to spend almost $69MM to do so.
Earle-Sears has raised $17MM as of the September report.
Bottom Line:
Is a Republican comeback in 2025 possible? Sure. In a world in which anything is possible, it could happen.
Is a Republican comeback in 2025 PROBABLE? Based the Three Campaign Elements of Environment, Candidate Quality, and Monday - no, it’s not probable.
But that’s why we have elections.
One never knows and if recent history is any guide, election nights have produced some shocking results.
If Earle-Sears does mount a victorious comeback beating historic trends, polling, and fundraising it will be one for the record books.
5 Things To Watch In Last 3 Weeks:
RGA and DGA - do the national governors’ association put ANY more money in. That will show you whether or not polls are outside or inside the MOE. HUGE tell.
Where the candidates campaign. Example - Pete Buttigieg is coming to campaign for Spanberger. Okay, no big deal; however, he is going to Charlottesville. That could indicate a turnout problem for Dems in college towns.
Do any national Republicans come into Virginia? Big tell.
Will Donald Trump endorse? Trump endorsed Miyares, but not so for Earle-Sears. He might see a Miyares win with a loss for Earle-Sears and we all know Trump likes to win.
Closing Arguments - the last three weeks should be a combination of attack ads (Spanberger on Trump & Earle-Sears vs Earle-Sears on Spanberger/Jones) and positive bio ads. She who has the most money to close it out will likely win. #AdvantageSpanberger
Mr Jones lyrics by Counting Crows