Virginia Political Rumor Patrol, reporting for duty.
One of the questions that I am asked frequently is:
“What’s politics REALLY like?”
“It’s like high school.”
Usually there is a solid laugh in response until they see my blank stare back and they quickly realize that I am being serious.
Their laughing smile quickly becomes a puzzled stare locked in on my blank stare.
“Oh, you’re being serious…”
“Do you remember high school?”
Basically, Ferris Bueller was a one off.
Before I report on ANY rumor, I employ the Steve Landes Rule.
Named for former Delegate Steve Landes, (good man that he is and himself a 24 year veteran of the Virginia House) the Landes Rule requires THREE separate, independent, and unsolicited mentions.
Monty Python agreed on three being the number of the counting when lobbing the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch:
Three makes it a legit rumor and mitigates the risk of being wrong. Rumors - good ones anyway - are also trinitarian in their own weird way and we’re coming up on Lent, so…
The Landes Rule has been reached on rumors that there are possible challengers to both Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears for their respective party’s nomination for governor.
“You mean this is bipartisan?”
<pulls pin One, Two, FIVE! …(three, sir! THREE!) and lobs Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch>
In alphabetical order:
Democrats
It’s not news that there are powerful members of the Legislative Black Caucus (Speaker Don Scott notwithstanding), who are less than enthused about former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger.
Current Congressman Bobby Scott has been mentioned often as a potential opponent. Scott himself buoyed that rumor with his non denial that he was considering running. That rumor has since waned only to give way to another that is perhaps more dangerous to Spanberger’s nomination.
State Senator Jennifer Carroll Foy, who ran for governor four years ago, is said to be considering a run. Recent posts on X suggest that she’s serious.
Carroll Foy finished a distant second to Governor Terry McAuliffe in '21:
Since she has already run for the post before, Senator Carroll Foy is a far more likely candidate than Rep. Bobby Scott, a 32 year veteran of Congress.
Privately, Republicans feared her candidacy more than McAuliffe’s in 2021.
Speaking of Republicans…
Republicans
This column started out with a look at the recently released VCU poll showing Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears down ten points to Spanberger.
(See below for that analysis) Upshot - the race is NOT 10 points, but there are some absolute nuggets in that poll. #Outlier #NotSelzerLevel
There has been a low but consistent grumbling about the Earle-Sears campaign largely among Republicans who pay super close attention to Virginia politics - General Assembly members, staff, administration officials, donors, campaign workers, lobbyists, AND national GOPer$.
This has not reached the grassroots with any force.
f=ma (remember high school?) Force = mass x acceleration
The Democratic rumors of unrest have real force and the Republicans could be gaining ground.
Last week, I got some calls about Delegate Nick Freitas and State Senator Glen Sturtevant running for the GOP nomination. They both quickly dismissed that through text messages. Freitas would be formidable in a quick nomination fight given his massive social media following and oratorical talent.
Sturtevant has recently tacked more to the right and likewise would be an outstanding statewide candidate.
The problem for Earle-Sears, aside from being behind in the polls and fundraising, is that there are any rumors/grumblings at all. The VCU poll below backs up the GOP undertow for the Lt. Governor.
MAGA Radio host and former Virginia Trump chairman John Fredericks, who owns over 20 radio stations along with his growing and considerably streaming audience, never hesitates about his desire to find a suitable candidate to defeat Earle-Sears in a primary. Actually, he has expressed that an unsuitable candidate would do for him.
Bottom Line: Spanberger and Earle-Sears are still both the prohibitive favorites for the nomination of their party. Neither are presumptive at this point; however, when was the last time we had two uncontested nominations for governor?
(Washington Gas lobbyist Scott “McGoogle” McGeary will know…)
Now, on with the countdown...
For all you Election Nerds nerdling around here in Election Nerd Disneyland, the Virginia’s 2025 governor’s race between likely nominees Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears is NOT the ten point lead (44-34 for Spanberger) that last week’s VCU Wilder School poll showed.
While it’s an outlier, it ain’t nowhere near the recently deceased Selzer/DesMoines Register Poll in Iowa. RIP.
The VCU Poll:
was Adults - not registered or likely voters
took place over a month and during the holidays (Dec 18-Jan 15)
is an academic, not campaign poll.
Those aren’t knocks on VCU or academic polls writ large, they just have different purposes.
Two nuggets to start tracking: High numbers of undecided voters (17%) and the Republican undertow for Earle-Sears (75% GOP support to Spanberger’s 85% with Democrats).
With the governor’s mansion at stake, Democratic candidate and Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (44%) leads Republican candidate and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (34%), with 17% of those polled still undecided. This is outside the poll’s margin of error (+/- 4.75 percentage points). Among Republicans, 75% support Earle-Sears, and among Democrats, 85% support Spanberger. Regarding independent voters, Earle-Sears is preferred (21%) over Spanberger (15%).
Obviously, voters will start making decision and that will go away; however, it’s very high and might show some ballot fatigue or general lack of interest after the super fun 2024 cycle.
There are some, as there are in most every poll, great nuggets of instructive information that unfortunately got missed in the catnip/clickbait headlines.
Try this headline instead:
Cost of Living leads K-12 60 to 14!
It’s still the Cost of Living, stupid.
Alas, Spanberger beating Earle-Sears by 10 gets more clicks.
But anyone running in 2025 should be locked into THIS:
EVERY piece of legislation this session should be viewed through that lens.
Legislators should ask one very simple question, “Does this bill increase or decrease costs for <pick one consumers/tax payers/rate payers> ?”
The Real Clear Politics average of this race is right at or shade under the Margin of Error:
The Cost of Living issue could help both candidates define their campaigns as neither Spanberger nor Earle-Sears has a single issue on their websites.
Not one.
Cost of Living CLEARLY will be making an appearance - or at least should be by now.
High school and politics are like Monty Python’s view of Camelot - best viewed from a distance.
God Wink Alert
This one popped up on my feed just now - the father/daughter first dance song from Mary Kathryn’s wedding. She’s now expecting our first grandchild in mid March.
It lent (see what I did there) great perspective to political rumors.
I’m fine…it’s fine…really.
Damn these onions.