Virginia CNBC Ranking Legislative Analysis - Structural Decline

Ten bills - cumulative impact; tax bills not included

Over the weekend, I was asked by a Virginia business leader how the first week of the General Assembly Session was going.

This is my reply.

At the outset of EVERY Session, there are bills that are dropped in that, to say the least, grab headlines. With social media these days, it’s a constant barrage of outrage and mistaken blame.

“Did you see what Abigail Spanberger did in Virginia?”

Boom.

Fox News then runs segments basically ReTweeting, now called RePosting, a listing of various bills submitted by Spanberger’s party which now controls the House and the Senate.

Whoa. Hang on a tick.

No - Spanberger hasn’t signed one bill into law. In fact, very few votes have actually been taken by anyone.

She signed some executive orders and if you have any questions about them, let ‘em rip. Hit reply and leave me a message.

To review, proposed legislation almost always submitted by members of the legislative branch and is sent to committees of jurisdiction (yes there can be more than one).

Every subcommittee and committee of both chambers acts as a filter that refines/clarifies legislation such that it can continue through the alimentary canal that is the legislative process.

The final legislative product is then sent to the executive branch for final filtration.

When Republicans write a bill in Congress it is not Donald Trump’s. The same thing holds true for Democrats in Virginia and everywhere else in these States United.

The General Assembly Session is basically but an intense, seemingly long but suddenly short process for an idea, no matter how good or how bad, to become law. It still has to make it through judicial review before it becomes a part of our being.

That said, I learned VERY early on that reading the initial drafts of legislation was an absolute waste of time because by the time a bill gets to the committees (sub and full) there were going to be so many changes, called Substitutes, that it was better to deal with them in real time. #Fast&Furious #Times2Thousand #JustTrustMeHere

With me so far? In direct reply to the Virginia business leader (and thanks to all my friends around the country who called or texted expressing your outrage over ALL THE CRAZY STUFF you saw on Fox News, X.com, and various other “news” outlets) here’s what I have pushed through a couple of AI platforms on the Virginia Chamber of Commerce’s Top Ten Bills of Naughtiness.

It’s called an Issue Stack. The bills listed below are taken from there original, non amended, state. They were analyzed against the overrated and underanalyzed CNBC Top States for Business Rankings.

Why CNBC? Because that’s apparently the gold standard in the political world these days and it was prominent in the most recent election. Hey, it’s just where we are now.

More’s the pity.

Here. We. Go.

One last thing - before you jump into this - have you seen the Japanese Bond Market lately?

No?

Virginia Business Competitiveness Briefing

CNBC Top States for Business – Cumulative Legislative Impact

I. Strategic Assessment

Legislative impact of just the top ten bills being watched by Virginia businesses —when viewed cumulatively—represents a material shift in the Commonwealth’s business competitiveness profile as measured by CNBC’s Top States for Business methodology.

The combination of higher labor costs, expanded litigation exposure, new tax burdens, and increased regulatory complexity places Virginia at risk of falling out of the top tier of CNBC’s rankings.

The most significant contributors to this risk include SB2 (paid family and medical leave insurance), repeal of Right-to-Work, a $15 minimum wage, HB243 (employer-linked benefit tax), HB188 (10% marginal income tax over $1 million), and a suite of bills expanding liability, permitting friction, and compliance burdens (HB930, HB449, SB637, SB215, HB1266, HB1111).

CNBC heavily weights Cost of Doing Business, Workforce, Business Friendliness, and Economy—categories that are all negatively affected by this package.

Without concurrent offsetting reforms, Virginia’s ranking is likely to decline from #4 (2025) into the #12–#18 range over the next two ranking cycles, with downside risk approaching the low teens.

II. CNBC Impact Scorecard (Bill-by-Bill)

SB2 – Paid Leave Cost of Doing Business / Workforce

High Risk - Payroll taxes + staffing disruption

SB 32 Right-to-Work Repeal Workforce

High Risk Explicit CNBC workforce metric

HB 1 - $15 Minimum Wage Cost of Doing Business

High Risk Higher baseline labor costs

HB188 – 10% Top Income Tax Economy / Workforce / Cost of Living & Doing Business

High Risk Talent & capital mobility

HB243 – Employer Benefit Tax Cost of Doing Business

High Risk New employer tax exposure

HB930 – Retaliation Expansion Business Friendliness

Medium-High Risk Litigation risk

HB449 – Class Actions Business Friendliness

Medium-High Risk Consumer liability expansion

SB637 – Employer Threshold Business Friendliness

Medium Risk Small business exposure

SB215 – Pay Transparency Business Friendliness

Medium Risk Compliance + private action

HB1266 – Environmental Justice Permitting Business Friendliness / Economy

Medium Risk - Permitting delays

HB1111 – Appeal Bonds Business Friendliness

Medium Risk - Litigation leverage

III. Public Rebuttal Narrative - Executive Branch

Virginia is not competing to be the lowest-cost state. We are competing to be the highest-value state.

Our economy is built on world-class education, infrastructure, access to global markets, and workforce quality.

Businesses choose Virginia because they want predictability, talent, and long-term stability—not volatility.

Our policy framework reflects investments that strengthen workforce participation, family stability, and economic resilience.

While some costs are higher, Virginia offsets them with unmatched access to markets, ports, data infrastructure, and a deep pipeline of skilled workers.

That is why companies continue to expand and invest here.

IV. Legislative Offset Agenda

(Required to Hold Rankings)

To prevent a sustained decline in CNBC rankings, the following offset agenda must be enacted alongside the 2026 package:

• Eliminate or cap Machinery & Tools and business property taxes

• Enact universal occupational licensing reciprocity

• Impose statutory permitting timelines with automatic approvals

• Adopt litigation guardrails and proportional damages standards

• Expand angel investor and early-stage venture tax credits

• Create executive compensation and HQ relocation tax offsets

Absent these offsets, Virginia’s decline in CNBC’s rankings will be structural, not cyclical.

That’s IF these bills make it.

Off ya pop now…

or just mash the accelerator: