Special Election - Early Voting Analysis - this is going to be close

Red turn out up, Blue down

Brief Look - Thirteen Localities

Zoom today at 10am to discuss this and Reconvene Session

Register here: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/LANOWTIiSDeNzgoR-3ESaQ

Graphics via VPAP (please consider donating to them)

NOVA Big Five

(These Five produced a 420,000 +/- raw vote margin for Governor Abigail Spanberger in the fall - hence the moniker Big = Big Margin)

Fairfax Down

Loudoun Down

Prince William Down

Arlington Down

Alexandria Down

Rurals

Rockingham Up

Lee Up

Scott Up

Henry Up

Cities

Richmond Down

Portsmouth Up slightly

Norfolk Down slightly

Virginia Beach Down

Analysis

This is going to be close and the No Campaigns (yes, plural) might very well pull this off.

The drop off in Democratic strongholds is based off of the historic BLOWOUT +15 point margin back in November.

Two key metrics:

1 - Democrats and Independents who voted for Spanberger either didn’t vote or voted No.

2 - Republican turnout could EXCEED the gubernatorial race.