Spanberger v. Earle-Sears Four Polls - Agreements and Differences

Nerd Alert! and Airplane! reference

Election Nerd Disneyland, a.k.a Virginia, has had a LOT of polling done this year.

Here is a breakdown of the recent polling.

Areas of Agreement

The key points of agreement among the four major October 2025 polls of the Virginia governor’s race: State Navigate, Quantus Insights, VCU Wilder School, and Co/efficient.

1. Spanberger Leads

Four polls conducted in October 2025 shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. The margins range from +5 to +13, but the direction of the race is consistent.

2. Race Tightening

Spanberger’s lead has narrowed since the summer. Co/efficient and Quantus show smaller Democratic leads, confirming the trend toward a closer contest heading into late October.

3. Independents Favor Spanberger; Seniors go to Earle-Sears

All four polls indicate independents leaning Democratic, while Earle-Sears performs best among voters aged 65 and older. Spanberger’s advantage among independents provides her overall edge.

4. Economy, Cost of Living, and Public Safety Dominate

Inflation, cost of living, and crime remain the top issues across every survey. Education and abortion rank below the economy but still influence key suburban voters.

5. Ticket-Splitting down ballot

Each poll finds evidence of ticket-splitting—voters favoring Democrats for governor but showing openness to Republicans for lieutenant governor, attorney general, or legislative seats.

Q - How much will voters split ticket v. not vote (line skipping) as they go down the ballot?

6. Turnout Composition Will Decide the Election

All surveys stress the decisive impact of turnout—particularly the balance between younger, urban Democrats and older, rural Republicans. Seniors’ share of the electorate, emphasized most strongly by Co/efficient, could tip the race.

Note - national Democratic figures like President Barack Obama, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg campaigning in Norfolk, Hampton Roads, and Charlottesville respectively could indicate a softness in those constituencies for Spanberger.

Further note - President Trump sort of endorsed Earle-Sears from Air Force One while Congressman Byron Donalds headlining a fundraiser. Two tells - Trump is not popular in Virginia and Earle-Sears needs money.

Consensus

This is a competitive but Democratic-leaning race. Spanberger maintains a modest lead driven by independent voters and suburban strength, but Republican enthusiasm and senior turnout could keep the contest close.

KEY POINT - the race is outside the margin of error (MOE) which means very little national money will be coming in.

Differences

1. Methodology and Voter Universe

• State Navigate – Likely voters (n=694)
• Quantus Insights – Registered voters (n≈1,300)
• VCU Wilder School – Adults weighted to registered voters (n=842)
• Co/efficient – Likely voters (n≈1,000)

2. Reported Lead Size

• State Navigate: +13
• VCU Wilder: +7
• Quantus Insights: +5
• Co/efficient: +5

Average - 7.5

3. Mode of Contact

• State Navigate: Text-to-web
• Quantus Insights: Mixed phone/web
• VCU Wilder: Live phone + web
• Co/efficient: Mixed online/phone with probability sampling

4. Weighting and Modeling

• State Navigate: Weighted by voter file + exit-poll demographics
• Quantus Insights: Weighted by ACS + voter-file region
• VCU Wilder: Weighted by Census + registration data
• Co/efficient: Weighted toward 2021 turnout model emphasizing older voters

5. Independent and Senior Voter Margins

• State Navigate: Independents +55 Spanberger (?)
• Quantus Insights: +15–20
• VCU Wilder: +12
• Co/efficient: +10–15, but seniors +15 Earle-Sears

Hard to see independents going THAT hard for any candidate.

6. Polling Firm Lean and Interpretation

• State Navigate – Neutral, education-policy focus
• Quantus – Nonpartisan, private analytics
• VCU Wilder – Academic, university-based
• Co/efficient – Republican-leaning, campaign consultancy

Summary

The race consistently shows Spanberger leading by 5–8 points, with modest tightening due to turnout dynamics and economic anxiety.

KEY POINT: Methodological variation explains the range, not the result.

Honestly, we should probably regulate this industry so that there is a simple agreed to standard of polling.

Airplane! reference (profanity included)