There’s old and accurate saying that goes, “cash is king.”
Well…
The 2025 race for Virginia’s next governor will produce, in all likelihood, the Commonwealth’s first woman to hold that office. The next governor will probably be Abigail Spanberger or Winsome Earle-Sears.
Amendment to line one - strike “king” and insert “Queen”
Cash is Queen.
Regardless of gender, when looking at campaign finance reports, all that matters is Cash On Hand.
COH.
That’s the bottom line - literally and figuratively.
And the bottom line for 2025 is that likely Democratic nominee former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has more than three times COH than likely Republican nominee Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears.
Current score:
Spanberger $6.551MM COH
Earle-Sears $2.111 COH
A deeper dive into the fundraising reports shows how the campaigns are behaving and how the market is responding to what they are selling.
But first, let’s look at how the campaigns announced their respective financials.
Spanberger was the first out of the gate declaring that she had raised $5.96MM in 2024 and $9.6MM since she started her campaign in November of 2023.
Those numbers are specific, right?
Earle-Sears on the other hand put out this:
The LG states that her campaign “raised more than $3 million.”
However, the financial report only shows $2.563MM raised.
Her releases states that there are “affiliated organizations.” That’s plural.
Her PAC, Winsome PAC, contributed $900k to the $2.5MM and most of that came in before she announced for governor. So…$1.6MM? But how many other organizations are raising money on her behalf?
Spanberger’s congressional campaign donation to her also pumped up her numbers by $1MM, but if you say you raised over $3MM you need to show that you did.
Most campaigns take a little liberty and round up their numbers.
Did Earle-Sears raise $3MM, $2.5, or more like $2MM since the kickoff of her campaign? Inquiring minds would like to know, especially the Republican campaigns that will be down ticket.
Spanberger, on the other hand, seems to be feeling the effects of division within her party.
Speaking of Queens…
It’s no secret that powerful Senate Finance Chair Louise Lucas is not exactly pleased with Spanberger. Lucas would prefer that Congressman Bobby Scott be the Democratic nominee this year.
Let’s go there - briefly and without getting too close to it.
Scott will be 78 in April, has been in Congress since 1993, and is Ranking Member on the House Committee on Education and the Workforce.
Now.
How many 32 year veterans of Congress at 78 and who are poised to take over the chair of a powerful committee pivot to run for governor of their state?
Can you name one?
It just doesn’t happen.
Every passing day that there is no announcement from Scott that he is running is a day that decreases the chances of him running. And in politics, every day matters. Every news cycle matters.
Bottom Line #1 - Scott doesn’t appear to be running.
Bottom Line #2 - Spanberger will likely be the nominee, but her party is not united behind her. Yet. By the end of summer they will be.
Here’s her recent financial report:
Again, not too shabby. $2.5MM is a solid effort.
Both campaigns are going to have to tighten up their expense reports as there are some OBVIOUS problems. Dig for yourself at the great VPAP website.
Big donors will want to see that their money is being spent well.
Spanberger’s heavy spend in this last period was probably worth it as she basically wrapped up her nomination; however, some of those line items need to be trimmed up. It’s also only January.
Earle-Sears is prohibited from fundraising until probably the end of February and her $2.1 COH will drop quite a bit since the campaign’s expenses continue. There are also likely deferred vendor payments from the end of 2024 that will need to be paid.
That’s also typical.
Bottom Line: Spanberger is ahead in the polls and in Cash On Hand.
Here’s why it matters at this stage.
Spanberger can build that COH lead while Earle-Sears can’t fundraise.
Money begets money.
Money, like water, follows the path of least resistance.
That can afford Spanberger some time to build a narrative against Earle-Sears for the general election and move polling to outside the Margin of Error or MOE.
Currently, Spanberger leads polling by 2 points which is inside the MOE. That gives Earle-Sears a narrative to her donors that she can win the general election. Spanberger will want to stop that narrative as soon as possible and her current cash advantage makes it possible.
As discussed on the Virginia FREE polling update Zoom on Tuesday night, the current state of the race is largely a reflection of the national mood. Right now, Donald Trump is having a much better honeymoon than he did in 2017.
Register here for that Zoom and I’ll send you the slide deck + video conversation.
Remember the 2017 races here in Virginia? Dramatic to say the least.
The structure of the ‘25 campaign is better for the GOP than it was in ‘17, but that’s going to change. We’ve already seen some divisions in the MAGA movement since the election and that could spill over into House of Delegates nomination fights this spring.
Look for Spanberger and/or her “affiliated organizations” to start going negative on Earle-Sears soon. Today, Spanberger had a solid media hit on gun control which shows that she is more focused on her base.
Spanberger will want to show improvement in the polling will increase her cash advantage by slowly constricting the flow of large national donations to Earle-Sears.
So when you hear “Oh it’s early. These polls are meaningless.”
Bravo. Sierra. They matter A LOT. Campaigns sell on them and make important early decisions that shape the entire campaign.
Remember - Campaigns are won in the beginning, not the end.
Heretofore Earle-Sears has not been attacked very much and is vulnerable in being framed by her opponent. She’s low on cash and most of the political news will be about the new Trump Administration. Punching through all of that will be a problem, BUT Virginia and New Jersey are also the only big races this year.
With free and earned media to shore up her base and some hyper targeted ads to frame Earle-Sears, Spanberger is clearly in the better position right now and is the odds on favorite to win in November.
Speaking of Queens…
How about Queen’s iconic performance at Live Aid? (FORTY YEARS AGO!!)
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