New Virginia Poll - Spanberger +5 before math.
ABBA, Lovin Spoonful, and Elton John
This is one of my favorite times of the year.
Cool mornings…warm afternoons…maybe hit a bucket of balls…take in the local minor league ball game…cold beer…good friends…lose money betting on the Pirates…it’s like clock work.
Football…so much football coming.
Love it. Just love it.
This cool, summer morning of pulling weeds to a fabulous Allman Brothers playlist was gashed wide open when the music suddenly stopped.
[No. Not now…]
Siri “Call from < name >”
Thinking this:
But answering this:
“Hey, what’s up?”
“Have you seen the new poll that’s out?!”
“No. Who did it?”
“Don’t know, but it’s only a 5 point race now.”
“Uh huh…send it to me.”
Text received. Poll methodology reviewed. CLICK HERE FOR POLL
“Well, I got good news and bad news. The good news is that they released the methodology.”
“What’s the bad news?”
“The methodology.”
“Oh.”
“The poll says 5 points, right?”
“Yeah!”
“But this poll says R +3 sample. This is a D+3 state in a good Democratic year.”
“So, it’s maybe +8?” (5+3)
“Keep going…”
“Eleven?”
So, with all due respect folks…
The race in Virginia has not gone from Abigail Spanberger leading by 17 to now up by 7 according to Roanoke College’s polling.
There is NOTHING about the last four months that screams ten point swing for Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears who only recently decided to endorse her own running mate LG nominee John Reid.
(Reid, by the way, is the standout candidate of the season)
But I’m not going to belabor the top lines or the resulting social media frenzy.
Let’s look at this poll more in depth because - as with most every poll - there are some opportunities for both sides in 2025’s version of the binary battle.
First off. Party ID
Nope. Not R+3.
Virginia is a D+3 state.
Nope. Virginia is 18% Black.
Trump is -12 and Virginia is R+3?
That math don’t math.
Spanberger Fave/Unfave is +26 among Independents and (below) Earle-Sears is -20. But the race is just +5 for Spanberger?
Nope.
Let’s dive on issues…
Toss up. But with the Trump numbers, it’s not a good direction to be behind in a top issue like Cost of Living.
What about the HATED Car Tax?
Where did that issue go? Well, Earle-Sears proposed gutting it, but Spanberger wisely said that she agreed with Winsome and that issue evaporated.
It’s still hot though.
On the question of do you support or oppose cutting the Car Tax, this is the support for cutting it:
But this AIN’T 1997. This issue is…to say the least COMPLICATED.
Which means you need an actual plan to eliminate a LOCAL tax.
The remaining amount is $3.5 BILLION on top of the capped local reimbursement of $950MM.
Yup, more math…hard math at that.
Come up with a real plan and this issue could gain traction.
Here are some other issues that you might see popping on screens soon.
As has been discussed here throughout the year, there are three key elements to campaigns.
Environment
Candidate Quality
Money
All three favor the Democrats in Virginia this year.
This is where Virginia is according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index. (PVI)
But what about the Roanoke College Poll?
They went from +17 to +7!
Just stop.
The ONLY poll you need to follow is the spend by the Democratic Governors’ Association versus the Republican Governors’ Association.
Right now, it’s Spanberger $5.5MM to $0.5MM.
11 to 1.
Did I mention 11 earlier? That’s just a coincidence.
Unlike this internal GOP poll.
Cardinal Bergoglio soon to be Pope Francis in The Two Popes:
“Truth may be vital, but without love it’s unbearable.”
Like I said, I love this time of year.
The top song from 1997 on Election Day?
Candle in the Wind