Net Zero Debate

Miyares the big winner, Jones the big loser.

Until last Friday afternoon, the 2025 Virginia election cycle was the most boring in my *checks calendar* thirty-three years of active participation in Old Dominion politics.

The boring nature of this year has been odd given the historic nature of this campaign - especially for governor.

Virginia is about to elect its first female governor and neither Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger nor Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears faced a contest for their respective nominations.

Truly remarkable and hat tip to both on that historic reality.

Well done, ladies. Well done.

After watching last night’s debate, however, I think they both would have benefited from competition within their parties in order to better prepare them for the general election.

Polling

Heading into the debate, Real Clear Politics average of polling had Spanberger with a solid lead of 7 points and perhaps more importantly an average of right at 50.

Money

Spanberger also had a significant 3 to 1 Cash On Hand (COH) advantage as of the last report:

This election was on basically cruise control for Spanberger who had adopted a strategy of prevent defense and, frankly, three runs and punt on offense.

Ball control and field position.

Early Voting

Roughly 350,000 votes had been cast prior to the debate and with a 60/40 D to R ratio that would yield the Democratic statewide nominees of Spanberger, State Senator Ghazala Hashmi, and former Delegate Jay Jones a lead of about 70,000 votes over each their Republican opponents.

Pre Debate Summary

Spanberger had been running out the clock and that was smart given her leads in polling, money, and Early Voting (EV).

Surprise! It’s October

(Went with Marine Gomer vs. Mayberry Gomer - obviously)

<Enter stage left> Democratic nominee for Attorney General Jay Jones and his now nationally known texting exchange with colleague Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner.

The Virginia political world was turned upside down over the weekend and then the national cable news media firestorm blanketed the airwaves.

It’s been GAME ON ever since.

That completely changed the dynamics of the DEBATE Thursday night, but will the Jones’ Res Horribilis become the Democrats’ Annus Horribilis?

Or Horrible Thing to Horrible Year.

Sidebar - have we settled on a name for this damn thing yet? Readers of my newsletters know how much I love to use pop culture references in order to drive home my points and to be honest, I’m stumped. Hold please…

Thanks, Google.

Sports

1. Bill Buckner miss played ground ball - 1986 World Series Boston v. NY Mets.

2. Dallas Cowboys’ Leon Lett fumble going into end zone - Super Bowl 27 vs. Buffalo

3. U of Michigan’s Chris Webber calling time out in 1993 NCAA championship game vs. UNC

Winner - Bill Buckner ‘86 World Series because the Red Sox were ahead and ended up losing the Series. Lett’s Cowboys were WAY ahead of the Bills (duh) and won the game anyway whereas the Wolverines were trailing and Webber’s timeout sealed the game.

Movies

My go to is The Godfather and it still works.

1. Carlo setting up Sonny

2. Fredo betraying Michael

3. The Ring in Lord of the Rings

Winner - The Ring in Lord of the Rings.

Carlo and Fredo are obvious ones but they don’t quite fit, do they? Their actions were born of avarice, jealousy, and likely being compromised - it’s either you or Michael…The Ring however is the lesson here.

The Ring symbolizes the corrupting nature of power, representing the idea that unrestrained desire for power inevitably leads to dependency, corruption, and the loss of one’s true self.

<End Scene>

We’re back. Thanks for hanging with me through that. I really appreciate it. Short night, early flight out, and now somewhere over the Atlantic heading to the Caribbean.

Work, work, work.

The Debate

Heading into last night’s debate, Earle-Sears had to score A LOT of points early and she did.

Her withering attacks on Spanberger were effective but the QUESTION central to the debate with the voice over reading the texts from Jay Jones to Del. Coyner WAS BRUTAL.

That was the defining moment of the campaign and basically a national commercial for the GOP.

Before we go deeper into the content of the debate, WHAT IN THE HELL was that first question???

The CAR TAX? Talk about burying the lede. That was damn near journalistic malpractice. Neither candidate did well there but no one was watching for a Car Tax debate.

Overall, I give the moderators a solid B+ on the night and it would have been an A had they not lead off with THE CAR TAX.

And we’re back again…

Spanberger knew the assault about Jones was going to come and while she was well prepped, it didn't much matter. Earle-Sears bludgeoned her opponent relentlessly.

Should have and did.

At that point, Spanberger was really on the ropes and Earle-Sears had all the advantage. Then Earle-Sears went Full On Trump the Interruptor and badgered Spanberger moving the narrative away from Jones enough to give Spanberger some audience sympathy. Especially among her base.

Reminder - those texts didn’t come from Spanberger; however, one could easily tell that she showed rightful disgust with having to take the punishment for Jay Jones. I’d bet dollars to doughnuts that Spanberger would prefer Jones drop out of the race so she could get back on her disciplined messaging and ground game.

Earle-Sears wasn’t about to let up. On issue after issue, she constantly and rudely interrupted Spanberger by acting as an extra moderator. More like a prosecutor waiting to pounce on one wrong flinch or syllable. Not that we would have heard it because of Earle-Sears talking over Spanberger.

This was a mistake as she should have let Spanberger be judged alone with her words and body language by the audience.

But for those constant and overbearing interruptions, Earle-Sears could have seriously narrowed Spanberger’s lead from outside the Margin of Error to possibly at or inside the MOE.

Earle-Sears scored point where she needed to - among her base. Judging from the online reactions, Republicans thoroughly enjoyed her aggression. Did it play well with undecided voters? Time will tell.

It might also have helped Spanberger.

Why? Well, those interruptions played into the narrative of Earle-Sears being constructed by Spanberger’s ads. See above for Cash On Hand lead and below for a recent ad.

This is where Earle-Sears needed to go COUNTER narrative by presenting herself as an organized, disciplined candidate who could rightly follow the overall successful administration of Governor Glenn Youngkin.

Sidebar #2 - if Youngkin could have run again he would win with a larger margin than 2021. IMHO.

As much as the partisan social media trolling has desperately tried to portray this as a victory for either candidate, I just don’t see it that way.

Spanberger had to survive a terrible debate due the Res Horribilis Jay Jones and she managed to do that. Barely. She stuck to her scripted answers a little too robotically but that was her campaign goal - survive and advance.

Counter with hard hitting negatives ads on Earle-Sears.

Storm weathered - for now. Her base is still with her. Next week the internal campaign polls will see if base Democrats and most Independents remain in her column.

IF - and it’s a BIG IF - the tone and tenor of the campaigns do in fact show a change in the polls, then we have a whole new ball game.

Earle-Sears had a real opportunity to break out and win over voters she currently does not have. I don’t think she made that sale. But she did rile up a comparatively uninterested base - which was her #1 goal. She hit that mark.

Undecided voters? Well…

It’s still the economy.

Independents almost always boil down to one maybe two issues. CLEARLY the Jones Res Horribilis could be that #2 issue, but will that stick to Spanberger? It certainly could, but I just think this is his and his alone.

Remember - 2025 is a BASE election and Virginia is a D+3 state.

At this stage, if the Republicans can get Winsome inside the Margin of Error, hold down their House losses, and possibly (now likely) winning the Attorney General’s race again - that’s a win. A big win.

What to watch for

As I have said repeatedly throughout the cycle, the ONLY data point I am watching is how much the Democratic Governors’ Association and Republican Governors’ Association drop in this race.

If the RGA comes in with north of another $5MM and the DGA matches or exceeds it, Election Night is going to be VERY exciting.

The clock is ticking.

As always.

Winners and Losers

Winner - Attorney General Jason Miyares by A LOT.

Loser - Jay Jones by a LOT.

Gubernatorial candidates I call it a tie because they both got what they wanted. It’s a push in that regard.

Net difference in a BASE election with a solid Democratic lead going into the debate?

Zero.

That doesn’t mean it did not matter, it’s just that the net effect is de minimus given the Environment, Candidate Quality, and Money advantages the Democrats have had in a structural D +3 state.

Net Zero Debate.

Next up - Miyares v. Jones.

What’s Jay Jones up against next week?

Since he said he wanted to see the children of Speaker Todd Gilbert dies in their mother’s arms - just one of most revered images in Western Civilization and Christendom - Madonna and Child.

Michelangelo’s pieta (pity or compassion in Italian) in the Vatican moved my wife, Michele, to tears as she sat and prayed in front of it.

I wonder what the two moms last night, if they were able to close the door and forget about politics for a while, would have said to each other.

I think we all know.