Will Democrats Fumble Away Their Lead?
Last night at dinner, I was asked by an announced 2025 statewide candidate what was going on at the General Assembly.
“There’s no narrative and the Democrats should like that.”
That’s not a criticism, it’s an observation.
We’re on Day 16 out of a scheduled 46 and can anyone honestly say that either the Democrats or Republicans have a message?
The transition and inauguration of Donald Trump (now available in crypto BTW) along with Cabinet confirmations have been the dominant political news stories along with the fires in California, the cold weather, some minor earthquakes, and that little water crisis in Richmond.
Nothing that the General Assembly has done - so far - has created much of narrative on where either party is heading in the Commonwealth.
Democrats should like that because they currently have the lead. Quiet is good for them.
Using football metaphors in keeping with the upcoming three peat Super Bowl win by the Kansas Swifty Referees, the Democrats are using a very efficient ball control offense along with a solid prevent defense.
But it’s early…
Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin polls in the upper 50s and in a recent poll (conducted by Co/efficient for Energy Right) he hit 61%.
Youngkin is popular in Virginia, but he will not be on the ballot this fall.
Barring a major event, Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earle-Sears will be.
(Websites linked above - can you find the common theme of those sites? Answer below)
Democrats ahead in polling and money:
*graphics - 1) Real Clear Politics 2) and 3) VPAP
Bottom Line: Spanberger is way ahead in Cash On Hand, has a higher percentage of $ coming from within Virginia, and has a polling lead right at the Margin of Error.
Furthermore, House Democrats have a lead in fundraising:
Totals of the top 8 for both sides:
Democrats $4.173MM
Republicans $2.852MM
$1.321MM lead
The Democrats are structurally ahead in a state that just went for Kamala Harris by 5.78 points.
If you have an early lead in most sports, you can try to manage that lead by sticking to what got you there or you can try to up the score.
America’s weak two party system is very similar.
Virginia Democrats, according to the Virginia Curse (2013 three way spoiler race notwithstanding), should be able to manage their current lead and possibly grow their House majority.
Unless they give the ball away to Republicans by passing legislation that helps create a narrative that breaks The Curse.
To Wit
Democrats in the House and Senate have submitted legislation called the Extreme Weather Relief Act in HB2233 and SB1123 which are summarized thusly:
Establishes the Extreme Weather Relief Program, administered by the Department of Conservation and Recreation, for the purpose of holding parties responsible for covered greenhouse gas emissions between the covered period of January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2024, for the parties' share of the Commonwealth's costs due to climate change. The bill defines responsible parties as fossil fuel extractors or crude oil refiners causing emissions of one billion metric tons or more of covered greenhouse gases during the covered period. Under the bill, responsible parties are strictly liable for cost recovery payments to the Commonwealth
The last THIRTY years of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Steve Haner’s column on this over at Bacon’s Rebellion rightly admonishes the policy with this paragraph bridge for me:
The bill is veto bait, certainly. It will be interesting to see if the Democrats actually do push it out of committee and onto the floor for recorded votes.(Fingers crossed.) This is worth reporting merely for what it says about the mindset that has overtaken that party and its base voters, and their level of economic understanding.
Now let’s talk politics on this side of the bridge…
These bills, obviously brought forward by a national environmental advocacy organization, have passed in similar forms in New York and Vermont.
They could create a Republican forced fumble.
These bills are completely against the running national narrative of bringing down costs, growing the economy, and creating new, well-paying jobs.
Ad campaigns are expensive enough when you are trying to create positive impressions, but when you are playing defense against negative national narratives? Ouch.
Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita told Politico’s Jonathan Martin (both from Virginia) in this interview that he wants “to be on the attack every friggin day.”
Democrats will want to be in offense in 2025 and that will mean exciting their base with a narrative AGAINST Donald Trump.
Handing Virginia Republicans issues to counter that narrative and put THE GOP on offense creates free/ earned media (legacy & social) opportunities galore which will drain Democrats’ financial and polling lead.
That can get out of control quickly.
So much of politics is timing. Just look at what has happened at the Day 16 mark:
California’s governing incompetence
Richmond’ governing incompetence
General Assembly passes legislation to tax energy companies over the last 30 years
Youngkin popularity pops 60
Rather than dropping in economically damaging legislation for national environmental groups, legislators should take a step back and read the moment.
Hint: this ain’t 2017.
On one hand, they are putting in bills to raise wages and control rent; yet on the other, they are dropping in legislation that will drive costs up and investors away.
Democrats might not like what Bill Maher has to say these days, but they had better listen if they want to hold their lead. (Good one for a LOT of Republicans, too)
Winning - Nothing Else Matters
Common website theme for Spanberger and Earle-Sears: No issues.