Earle-Sears v. Spanberger Polling
Time Lessons - Cher, Bill Medley & Jennifer Warnes, Top Gun Maverick
Three Campaign Elements
Environment
Candidate Quality
Money
All are variables that change.
Time never changes.
You never get it back.
Environment - Advantage Democrats
Trump Approval (-7.7)
Right Track/Wrong Track (-17.7)
Candidate Quality - Subjective but…
Real Clear Politics Average of Polls:
Money - Significant Democratic advantage
Abigail Spanberger
Winsome Earle-Sears
Cash On Hand:
Recent Polls with links:
Emerson Poll - Spanberger +10
A2 Insights - Spanberger +3 (does not include partisan ID)
co/efficient - Spanberger +6 (R+4 poll vs. D+3 Cook PVI screenshot below)
During a recent appearance on John Fredericks’ Radio Show Friday morning segment called The Virginia Gang (former Senators Jill Vogel (R) Siobhan Dunnavant (R), Chap Petersen (D), Joe Morrissey (D), and yours truly), Earle-Sears’ campaign manager Mark Harris suggested that Virginia has moved from a D+3 to a D+1 state.
Virginia is NOT a R+4 state. We are NOT between Arizona and Florida/Ohio.
If true, however, that suggests a change to Environment.
When one adjusts the co/efficient poll to just D+1, that means that poll could be a net Spanberger +11. If Virginia is still D+3 that means Spanberger +13.
Regardless - the recent average of those recent three polls lands between Spanberger +6 or +8.5.
That’s also in line with the RCP Average above of +7.7
Both averages are Outside the Margin of Error.
The unanswered question is will national money come in to help Republican statewide ticket.
Every day that passes without a national commitment and infusion of funds indicates that the answer will be No.
This underscores one of my #1 Rules of Politics:
Elections are won in the winter, not the fall.
33 days left until Election Day.