2025 Democratic Primary Analysis - the future has arrived

Race moves from Lean Democrat to Slight Lean Democrat

Jun 18, 2025

Observing the obvious from yesterday’s Democratic primary in Virginia:

There was NO contest for governor and that’s no easy feat in the modern Democratic party. Mad respect to Abigail Spanberger for that…and goes to one of my #1 Rules of Politics - Campaigns are won in the beginning, not the end.
With no opposition, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has a united party behind her - but are the Democrats enthused?
The problem is not the answer, the problem is the question.
The contest for Lt. Governor was probably the closest three way race in modern memory. I’d have to consult Scott “McGoogle” McGeary for that answer but here’s the graphic from VPAP.
27.4 to 26.7 to 26.32 = WOW. Super close, right?
And in about 3 more days it will be super irrelevant. It’s the LG nomination. Name three who ran last time….<buzz>…times up.
I had predicted that State Senator Ghazala Hashmi would win and that no one would break 30. While 2 for 2 (one hand clap later), this would seem to show a divided party. Not really.
America votes against. The choice is binary. And Democrats HATE Donald Trump. That’s enough for June as almost all the campaign ads from the candidates were about stopping Trump and Elon Musk.
The top three all raised about the same amount of money (2MM each), but Hashmi DOMINATED the number of donors both large and small. In fact, she beat former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and State Senator Aaron Rouse combined - 3525 to 2952.
Speaking of Richmond and former Mayor Stoney…ouch.
Hashmi rolled up the margins in the Metro Richmond winning by over 15,000 votes.
Speaking of dominance, Aaron Rouse’s performance in Hampton Roads will lead to requests for him to run for Congress against incumbent Republican Congresswoman Jen Kiggans.
Hashmi finished a distant third in Hampton Roads which could be a real liability for her in November.
The nomination for Attorney General went to former Delegate Jay Jones over Henrico Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor in another close race 51-49.
In what was cast as a proxy battle between Clean Virginia and Dominion Energy, might have been something else entirely given the geographic and, possibly, demographic results. That deserves deeper analysis; but make no mistake, the 36 year old Jones won a statewide race in his second attempt. Two statewide races in just his mid 30s? Nothing wrong with focus and ambition these days…and he ran ads focusing on fighting Trump, but did so highlighting his young family. Politics is about the future and Jay Jones has a bright one.
Comparing the two graphics from VPAP, one can easily observe that both Sen. Hashmi and Shannon Taylor did well along the 64 and 81 corridors. More analysis needed here to see the dynamic of Democratic women candidates in rural areas along with an overlay of the younger potentially more active college students who went for Jones in Charlottesville, Harrisonburg, and Blacksburg/Montgomery County.

Bottom Lines:

Money matters. One is not out spent as much as one is OUT RAISED. Those candidates which raise the most money will have a better campaign operation. It’s that simple. Candidates who complain about being outspent were probably just out worked. You know, out campaigned.
Democratic turnout was solid given that there was no contest at the top of the ticket and matched the 2021 cycle with around 480,000 votes. Consistency is good.
This ain’t 2017, folks. Democratic turnout in the primary then was around 542,000 eight years ago. Let’s do the math - 542k to 480k. What? 11% less? yikes…
The Democratic Party will rightly tout that their ticket is as diverse as the Republicans. (Yes, I just typed that) However….
The Democrats have a candidate neither north nor west of Henrico County. Spanberger is from Henrico and never moved into the current 7th (southern Prince William etc..), Hashmi is from Chesterfield, and Jones is from Norfolk.

That slices two ways - recent Democratic gains in Virginia have come in metro Richmond, but not having a candidate from Northern Virginia could be a real problem.
Since so much of our politics these days is based on Identity, one has to consider and realize that a mainstay of the highly successful brand for Virginia Democrats over the last quarter century has been moderate centrist, pro-business candidates focusing on competent governance without too much energy on the social culture wars and…the MAWG and NOVA. The Middle Aged White Guy and Northern Virginia.
MAWGs and NOVA. Democrats have AVERAGED over 2 MAWGs on their statewide ticket since 2001 and since 2005 they have AVERAGED two candidates from Northern Virginia. This year, the Democrats have ZERO.
Republicans, on the other hand, are thrilled with the results from last night. #VotingRecords #Oppo Research. They see an opportunity to portray Virginia Democrats as going too far left, but they know the top of their ticket trails badly in fundraising. The GOP will make the attack ads, but will they be seen?
Structurally, this is a Democratic year. No question. But the choice is binary and politics is about the future. If the Democrats stick to their historically successful brand, they should win. But did they?