10 Winners and 10 Losers - Election 2025

Jimi Hendrix, the Who, and Shelby Foote

Winners

1. Abigail Spanberger - the former congresswoman ran a virtually mistake free campaign. Smart, disciplined, and organized Spanberger ran up the margin of victory through an onslaught of TV ads and message consistency. In a sea of chaos, she offered boring but good. Suburban voters like that and Virginia suburban voters can’t stand Donald Trump. See lessons below. Spanberger made history as the first female governor in Virginia and she has a real opportunity to be one of the best given all the challenges ahead. If her campaign is an indication of her upcoming fast four year term, Spanberger should over perform expectations.

2. House Speaker Don Scott - wow - the onslaught of commercials by House Democrats was impressive was due to the fundraising prowess of the Speaker. Those ads also mirrored the messaging of Spanberger. No wonder Democrats won swing voters almost 80/20 which piled up 13 new House Democrats. That makes 64 out of 100. Speaker Scott looks to be in firm control of the Virginia House well into the next decade. Savvy, pragmatic, and strategic. Now that’s a trifecta.

3. Affordability - what’s President Trump focusing on this week? Affordability. When state and city campaign themes change messaging in the White House? Yeah, that’s called Winning. His ideas are unaffordable - tariffs, tariff rebates, and pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates (shhh.. don’t tell Heritage), but will Democrat ideas be any better?

   Republicans in the midterms better be praying that the Supreme Court tosses Trump’s tariffs. And don’t get me started on 50 year mortgages…Alex, I’ll take Dumb and Dumber for $800, please.

4. Legislative Black Caucus - a DOMINANT force in the Democratic Party whose power grew by leaps and bounds through fundraising and electoral successes. Force = Mass x Acceleration. The LBC is a FORCE in Virginia and will be.

5. State Senator Ghazala Hashmi - Never debated her opponent and still won Lt. Governor by over 10 points.

6. Former Delegate Jay Jones - overcame his self made storm and won the Attorney General’s race by almost 7 points.

7. Pollster Chaz Nuttycombe - Dial up an award for the Most Accurate Pollster and drop it off it at State Navigate. Nuttycombe called it throughout the cycle accurately and blew the doors off the academic pollsters. There really should be some regulations drawn up to mitigate the mistakes and likely intentional falsehoods that permeate public polling. Amanda Iovino also gets a gold star on the forehead for her internal polling which lined up with Nuttycombe’s. Everyone else can go pound sand. Obviously, Democratic campaign pollsters are winners here, too. See Spanberger above.

8. Politics 101:

   Campaigns with the fewest mistakes usually win.

   Sales growth (fundraising) covers a multitude of sins (h/t Grandpa Brown)

   Staying the EFF on message is Job #1 on growing sales.

   It’s still the economy.

   Government shut downs NEVER work - especially in Virginia. Ask Ken Cuccinelli.

   You are never OUT SPENT - you are OUT RAISED. That means you were OUT WORKED.

   More money means more ads means more ad impressions. It’s just math.

   Don’t wear hats and scream at hecklers.

9. Econ 101:

   Still undefeated after all these years, Econ 101 is grounded in Supply and Demand. Things are unaffordable because Demand is ahead of Supply - especially on Housing. I warned of housing costs back in the 2023 legislative cycle and it has only gotten worse. Apartments are but a band aid and policy makers had better get ahead on one of the primary elements to the American Dream - owning your own home.

10. Local Governments - the real battle ahead is not going to be between Democrats and Republicans, it will be State vs Local decision making. From energy supply and delivery to housing construction to education policy to tax policy, Local Governments are going to be final deciders. In the battle between Abundance & Affordable (YIMBY) vs. No Thank You (NIMBY), take the NIMBYs to cover. Until the connection is made between Supply and Demand with folks voting in favor of lowering costs vs. direct subsidies, this will only get worse. #BoomersVsGenX/Z/Millennials.

11. “Clean” Virginia - having shoved down the throats of rate payers the Virginia Clean Economy Act, they have pivoted to cleaning up corruption in Virginia. Alex, I’ll take Is It Irony or Hypocrisy for $2,000.

12. Honorable Mentions - John Reid and Jason Miyares both outpolled and outclassed the top of the ticket - by a LOT. Reid was the stand out of the cycle given his moxie and hard work (fundraising notwithstanding) while Miyares took advantage of the Res Horribillis but no one would be able to close a 15 point gap. Miyares finished 8.6 points ahead of Earle-Sears.

13. Honorable Mention #2 - Gen X. Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger, Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, and House Speaker Don Scott are all Gen Xers. Baby Boomer idealism yields to Gen X pragmatism - hopefully. #Affordability

Losers

1. Winsome Earle-Sears - the worst Republican gubernatorial candidate in over 60 years ran a chaotic and undisciplined campaign devoid of any issues. She never had one policy on her website. Another Virginia Republican Seinfeld campaign - a campaign about nothing.

   An object lesson in How Not To Campaign, Earle-Sears became the face and voice for the Spanberger campaign. She never articulated why she was running for governor and in the end left every other Republican running for cover. Honestly, there is a book that needs to be written for candidate training classes.

   For instance, Earle-Sears Chapter 3 Verse 16: “For when the People give you a running mate, you embrace the will of the people; thou shall not waste four months campaigning against your own.” Or some such…

2. President Donald Trump - He won a year ago on Immigration and Inflation. This year he lost on Affordability. It’s still the economy and his tariffs are NOT working. He should take a page out of Bill Clinton’s famous pivot and declare, “The people have decided - the age of Big Tariffs is over but we cannot afford our current path. So, let’s artfully make a deal…” Or some such…But the people have spoken. Clearly.

3. Republican Pollsters not named Amanda Iovino - seriously, when you are off by this much, give the money back. Like all of it.

4. Down Ballot Republicans - while not their direct fault given the onslaught at the top of the ticket, Republicans bear some responsibility for knowing a train wreck was coming and doing nothing about it. Ideas and better policies help.

5. Governor Glenn Youngkin - too much blame is being laid at his feet and let’s be honest - had he NOT gotten involved to the extent that Youngkin did - this would have been worse. A LOT worse. Earle-Sears would have lost by 20. Like Down Ballot Republicans, he gets listed because he was there. MAGA folks tried very quickly to blame it all on Gov. Youngkin but then they read the results from literally EVERY race this year - Georgia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York City. Youngkin has a 53% approval in Virginia and Earle-Sears got 42%. There was not one ad that I saw showing Youngkin screaming, “I AAAAAMMMM SPEAKKKINNNNGGG!”

6. Tariffs - costs are being passed along to consumers just as everyone with a working prefrontal cortex had predicted. Lobotomies are unnecessary at this point and hard to undo, but the GOP had better figure out a way to unscrew this one. SCOTUS will likely toss them out, but now is the time to express healthy skepticism.

7. MAGA - the Virginia results showed CLEARLY that the low propensity 2024 Trump voters did not and will not show up without the President on the ballot. Plenty of idioms are useful here - fish or cut bait, sh*t or get off the pot, or just remember the pastor from Blazing Saddles:

   

8. Legislation With a Price Tag or Fiscal Impact Statement - Democrats obviously and convincingly won on Affordability, right? Well, a lot of bills that passed the General Assembly previously have significant impact on the cost of doing business and the cost of living. The Republicans are going to be able to focus on those themes for EVERY bill and budget amendment.

9. Campaign Finance Reform - Virginia will remain the Wild West of Campaign Finance; however, calls for greater transparency and full disclosure of economic interests should be welcomed. That would “Clean” things up a bit.

10. Republican Party of Virginia - the party has a serious branding problem in a state that has such a negative view of Donald Trump; however, RPV is little more than a mail permit these days and carries out only perfunctory roles especially with the decreasing impact of direct mail (shhh…don’t tell the consultants…) Efforts to “take over” and “force resignations” are vanity projects at best. But…that’s what happens when you lose. If RPV wants to become relevant again, it could set up a committee to vet and train candidates before they let their brand be harmed any further. See above.

Jimi Hendrix asked, “Are You Experienced?”

This year legislation will Strike <experienced"> and Insert <Affordable>

If you can just get your mind together
Then come on across to me
We’ll hold hands, and then we’ll watch the sunrise
From the bottom of the sea

But first, are you experienced?
Or have you ever been experienced?
Well, I have

I know, I know you probably scream and cry
That your little world won’t let you go
But who in your measly little world
Are you trying to prove that
You’re made out of gold and, uh, can’t be sold?

So uh, are you experienced?
Have you ever been experienced?
Well, I have
Ah, let me prove it to you

GEN X leads the Virginia House, Senate, and Executive Branch!

And then on the genius of our country and compromise, historian Shelby Foote: