I was asked via e-mail from a current state employee:

I am a state government employee who spends at least part of my time trying to explain to my agency that we need to understand economics (beyond our own internal budgeting).

Given that my agency doesn’t always appreciate being challenged on how economic development and business really works…

The person went on to ask if it was okay to join the Academy.

YES!

WHY NOT?

Virginia FREE has launched the Virginia FREE Academy, a non-partisan educational program designed to educate people involved in public policy making about how our economy actually works.

(FREE stands for Foundation for Research and Economic Education )

Starting Monday, October 5, and running through December 21, 2026, the Academy is a 12-week webinar series held live every Monday evening from 7:00–8:15 PM. Just over one hour a week!

Our Academy was built for any elected official - state, local, and federal and their staff or anyone seeking those offices.

It’s also built for those who are involved in policy making or would like to be.

Yes, that includes lobbyists and their firms and/or those who work for the companies they represent.

Register today at THIS LINK

Sessions cover the issues shaping Virginia’s competitiveness:

1. Virginia’s economic engine

2. Business fundamentals

3. Taxation

4. Labor markets

5. Energy policy

6. Infrastructure

7. Housing

8. Healthcare economics

9. Technology and AI

10. Trade

11. State vs. Local governance

12. Capstone session on real-world policy tradeoffs.

Tuition is $150 per participant

Graduates also gain ongoing access to quarterly alumni policy labs, monthly executive briefings, and regional in-person leadership forums.

Register today at THIS LINK

Seats are limited to keep sessions interactive, so we encourage early registration.

If you have questions or would like to discuss group registration for your office or organization, please reach out directly.

Subscribe now

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What has been dubbed the Mississippi Miracle is not a new subject and a story about the Magnolia State schools in early September, for once, does not mention former Ole Miss football head coach Lane Kiffin.

Here’s the headline and link:

Mississippi Fixed Its Schools. Here’s How Other States Can Too. Powerful teachers’ unions are an obstacle to reform. But Mississippi’s dramatic breakthrough proves that evidence-based literacy can succeed anywhere.

What stirred social media over the weekend was the chart below from the piece (ooooh….graphics) comparing state literacy programs with the strength of teacher unions in the states.

From the Canter column:

When my colleagues and I compared the Fordham teachers union strength ranking to ExcelinEd’s early literacy tracker, we found a strong, negative correlation between the two—the more powerful the unions, the fewer literacy policy principles the state had adopted.

Next up - Literacy and Migration.

Yes, parents can and do talk. They also can move.

The Progressive Policy Institute website has more on Mississippi at this link.

Screen shot from their landing page:

And with that…

Maybe Garth saw it first when asked about making a change…

“We fear change.”

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Want to make a Change?

Virginia FREE has launched the Virginia FREE Academy, a non-partisan educational program designed to educate people involved in public policy making about how our economy actually works.

October 5th Kickoff!

Click here to Register

As soon as you are able
Woman, I am willing
To make the break that we are on the brink of
My cup is on the table
Our love is spilling
Waiting here for you to take and drink of

So if you're tired of the same old story
Oh, turn some pages
I'll be here when you are ready
To roll with the changes
Yeah, yeah, woo

I knew it had to happen
Felt the tables turnin'
Got me through my darkest hour
I heard the thunder clappin'
Felt the desert burnin'
Until you poured on me like a sweet sunshower

Michael Jackson started with the Man In The Mirror

I’m gonna make a change
For once in my life
It’s gonna feel real good
Gonna make a difference, gonna make it right

As I turn up the collar on my favorite winter coat
This wind is blowin’ my mind
I see the kids in the street with not enough to eat
Who am I to be blind, pretending not to see their needs?

A summer’s disregard, a broken bottle top
And a one man’s soul
They follow each other on the wind, ya know
‘Cause they got nowhere to go
That’s why I want you to know

I’m starting with the man in the mirror
I’m asking him to change his ways
And no message could have been any clearer
If you wanna make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself and then make a change

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States Ranked - Virginia’s Peers

16. Oregon

17. Alaska

18. Maine

19. Virginia

20. Pennsylvania

21. Rhode Island

22. Colorado

Lowest Taxed States

44. Florida

45. Idaho

46. Arizona

47. South Carolina

48. Alabama

49. Tennessee

50. Mississippi

Causation or Correlation or Less Affordable?

Other Notable States - Ohio (31), Texas (34), Georgia (38) North Carolina (39)

Virginia FREE Migration Ranking

Starting Monday, October 5, and running through December 21, 2026, the Academy is a 12-week webinar series held live every Monday evening from 7:00–8:15 PM.

Just over one hour a week!

Our Academy was built for any elected official - state, local, and federal and their staff or anyone seeking those offices.

It’s also built for those who are involved in policy making or would like to be.

Yes, that includes lobbyists and their firms and/or those who work for the companies they represent.

Register today at THIS LINK

Sessions cover the issues shaping Virginia’s competitiveness:

1. Virginia’s economic engine

2. Business fundamentals

3. Taxation

4. Labor markets

5. Energy policy

6. Infrastructure

7. Housing

8. Healthcare economics

9. Technology and AI

10. Trade

11. State vs. Local governance

12. Capstone session on real-world policy tradeoffs.

Tuition is $150 per participant

Graduates also gain ongoing access to quarterly alumni policy labs, monthly executive briefings, and regional in-person leadership forums.

Register today at THIS LINK

Subscribe now

Share

I was asked via e-mail from a current state employee:

I am a state government employee who spends at least part of my time trying to explain to my agency that we need to understand economics (beyond our own internal budgeting).

Given that my agency doesn’t always appreciate being challenged on how economic development and business really works…

The person went on to ask if it was okay to join the Academy.

YES!

WHY NOT?

Virginia FREE has launched the Virginia FREE Academy, a non-partisan educational program designed to educate people involved in public policy making about how our economy actually works.

(FREE stands for Foundation for Research and Economic Education )

Starting Monday, October 5, and running through December 21, 2026, the Academy is a 12-week webinar series held live every Monday evening from 7:00–8:15 PM. Just over one hour a week!

Our Academy was built for any elected official - state, local, and federal and their staff or anyone seeking those offices.

It’s also built for those who are involved in policy making or would like to be.

Yes, that includes lobbyists and their firms and/or those who work for the companies they represent.

Register today at THIS LINK

Sessions cover the issues shaping Virginia’s competitiveness:

1. Virginia’s economic engine

2. Business fundamentals

3. Taxation

4. Labor markets

5. Energy policy

6. Infrastructure

7. Housing

8. Healthcare economics

9. Technology and AI

10. Trade

11. State vs. Local governance

12. Capstone session on real-world policy tradeoffs.

Tuition is $150 per participant

Graduates also gain ongoing access to quarterly alumni policy labs, monthly executive briefings, and regional in-person leadership forums.

Register today at THIS LINK

Seats are limited to keep sessions interactive, so we encourage early registration.

If you have questions or would like to discuss group registration for your office or organization, please reach out directly.

Subscribe now

Share

Virginia FREE is proud to announce the launch of the Virginia FREE Academy, a non-partisan educational program designed to educate people involved in public policy making about how our economy actually works.

(FREE stands for Foundation for Research and Economic Education )

Starting Monday, October 5, and running through December 21, 2026, the Academy is a 12-week webinar series held live every Monday evening from 7:00–8:15 PM. Just over one hour a week!

Our Academy was built for any elected official - state, local, and federal and their staff or anyone seeking those offices.

It’s also built for those who are involved in policy making or would like to be.

Yes, that includes lobbyists and their firms and/or those who work for the companies they represent.

Register today at THIS LINK

Sessions cover the issues shaping Virginia’s competitiveness:

1. Virginia’s economic engine

2. Business fundamentals

3. Taxation

4. Labor markets

5. Energy policy

6. Infrastructure

7. Housing

8. Healthcare economics

9. Technology and AI

10. Trade

11. State vs. Local governance

12. Capstone session on real-world policy tradeoffs.

Tuition is $150 per participant

Graduates also gain ongoing access to quarterly alumni policy labs, monthly executive briefings, and regional in-person leadership forums.

Register today at THIS LINK

Seats are limited to keep sessions interactive, so we encourage early registration.

If you have questions or would like to discuss group registration for your office or organization, please reach out directly.

Subscribe now

Share

Virginia FREE is proud to announce the launch of the Virginia FREE Academy, a new non-partisan educational program designed to close the gap between business reality and public policy.

Starting Monday, October 5, and running through December 21, 2026, the Academy is a 12-week webinar series held live every Monday evening from 7:00–8:15 PM.

Sessions cover the issues shaping Virginia’s competitiveness:

1. Virginia’s economic engine

2. Business fundamentals

3. Taxation

4. Labor markets

5. Energy policy

6. Infrastructure

7. Housing

8. Healthcare economics

9. Technology and AI

10. Trade

11. State vs. Local governance

12. Capstone session on real-world policy tradeoffs.

Register today at THIS LINK

Who should register now?

Elected and appointed officials — This program was built with you in mind. Whether you’re a legislator, legislative staff member, or serve in an appointed capacity, the Academy gives you a practical, working understanding of how Virginia’s economy and business community actually function — the kind of grounding that leads to policy built on outcomes, not assumptions.

Virginia FREE members — As a member, you know firsthand how much better policy outcomes are when officials understand the business realities behind them. We’d ask you to register yourself if this fits your role, and just as importantly, to help us spread the word to officials in your network who would benefit.

Tuition is $150 per participant, with sponsorships available for organizations that want to support participation.

Graduates also gain ongoing access to quarterly alumni policy labs, monthly executive briefings, and regional in-person leadership forums.

Register today at THIS LINK

Seats are limited to keep sessions interactive, so we encourage early registration.

If you have questions or would like to discuss group registration for your office or organization, please reach out directly.

Subscribe now

Share

Some movie recommendations that highlight business resilience:

Baseball, Nike, and Baby food.

FLIP = counter punch

Rainey Center - polling with questions and crosstabs

Note NET support shift/flip

But Fear Moves Voters More

Political Reaction: Boomers probably move more on Cure Diseases than Job Destruction but the opposite for Gen Zers. Gen Xers - probably the swing generation vote here - a draw given dual concerns of aging parents and debt laden children.

Personal Reaction: Diagnosed with prostate cancer two years ago and more aligned with Cure Disease cohort - the Moderna skin cancer vaccine caught my eye. I’m pretty sure they weren’t walking the test results down the halls for analysis.

Final Analysis - Yes, all politics is local but it’s also personal.

Proper zoning of data centers and selling the benefits matter.

Speaking of cowbell….

One of the more memorable Saturday Night Live skits involves Will Farrell playing the cowbell on Blue Oyster Cult’s famous song, “Don’t Fear the Reaper.”

Given all the sturm und drang from those peddling a fear based back of the brain narrative on data centers, I say move to the prefrontal cortex with the benefits of data centers - and use more COW BELL.

Here are two famous cowbell songs sans THE famed producer Bruce Dickinson:

Rolling Stones Honky Tonk Woman LIVE (best cowbell version)

Mississippi Queen - Mountain

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All this data, data, data feels more like…

Kind of boring?

Back to the Future was made in 1985 about 1955.

Here’s the Johnny B. Goode scene which ends with telling the audience that the future belongs to our kids.

We need to make sure the future works for them so they can love it.

(grandkids, too!)

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In the national hysteria over data centers, it looks like one locality has decided to use this as an opportunity to invoke economist Thomas Sowell’s famous line:

There are no solutions, only tradeoffs.

Tonight, Chesterfield County will consider whether or not to use tax revenue from data centers to lower the rate of taxation on cars.

Here’s an article from online outlet - the Richmonder -that discusses the likely vote:

Chesterfield proposes using data center revenue to lower car taxes

proposal to use tax money collected from data centers to reduce the car tax rate, a move the county says would give residents a direct financial benefit from the facilities.

The current car tax rate in the county is $3.25 for every $100 of assessed value. According to a county press release, the data center dollars could reduce it to as low as $1.79 following the full build-out of Google’s three planned campuses.

The tradeoff seems to be a solid one - finding a benefit from data centers to overcome the absolutely HATED car tax.

From the article - not just a benefit but a “direct financial benefit.”

Quoting Dr. Peter Venkman from Ghostbusters:

If I'm wrong, nothing happens! We go to jail—peacefully, quietly. We'll enjoy it! But if I'm right, and we can stop this thing... Lenny, you will have saved the lives of millions of registered voters…

(I’m just thrilled I got to quote Ghostbusters! Thank you Chesterfield Board of Supervisors!)

<sniff> I’d also like to thank the Academy…

Sorry…got carried away…

<end scene>

This could be an excellent reframing of the debate since some politicians are looking at highly misleading polling that ask respondents whether or not they want data centers in “their neighborhoods” or “communities.”

Seriously?

The vast majority of data centers are zoned industrial, not residential.

Quoting again from the miniseries “The Crown” when Prime Minister to be Harold MacMillan says to the soon to outgoing PM Sir Anthony Eden:

There is no justice in politics.

Or push polls.

Some politicians are caught in today’s Wind Sock Populism and are not seeing how data centers are used almost every minute of every day by consumers and, yes, registered voters.

What’s the tradeoff if the Supply of data center computing power doesn’t keep up with consumer/registered voter Demand?

Prices go up.

Period.

Supply and Demand ain’t theory - it’s law.

You think tariffs increase inflation? (yes)

Or wars on Iran make gas prices go up? (also yes)

The wind will shift quickly indeed and there will be no justice.

How about when the prices or fees on these everyday uses go up?

20 Everyday Consumer Uses of Data Centers

1. Text messaging & instant messaging

2. Email

3. Internet search

4. Social media

5. Streaming TV & video

6. Streaming music & podcasts

7. Credit and debit card transactions

8. Online and mobile banking

9. Digital payments & mobile wallets

10. GPS, maps & navigation

11. Online shopping & e-commerce

12. Cloud photo & video storage

13. Video calling & conferencing

14. Online gaming

15. AI assistants & generative AI

16. Smart-home devices

17. Healthcare portals, records & prescriptions

18. Travel reservations & transportation

19. Food ordering & delivery

20. Work, school & cloud productivity

What political consultant wouldn’t want to run ads against opponents who made those prices go up?

Those ads will write themselves and not figuratively.

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Bob Dylan - Blowin’ In The Wind

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Frank Sinatra…

Summer Wind

And to the Chesterfield County Board of Supervisors…

Let’s Groove Tonight!

YES - Earth, Wind, and FIRE!

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In 1964, Justice Potter Stewart tried to define obscenity and gave up, settling for “I know it when I see it.” It was honest — and a warning. Within a decade the Supreme Court replaced it with something more structured, because a rule that lives in one observer’s gut can’t be trusted twice in a row.

There’s an old line that’s made the rounds in statehouses for generations, in one version or another:

if you can’t take their money, eat their food, drink their wine, and still vote against them the next day, you don’t belong here.

Nobody’s quite sure who said it in Virginia first, and the fuller original doesn’t bear repeating — but the point survives the paraphrase. It assumed something we can no longer take for granted — that a lawmaker’s independence was strong enough to survive a donor’s hospitality.

Ask around Richmond today about the state of campaign fundraising, and the word that comes back most often isn’t corrupt, or even coercive.

It’s brazen.

That’s a word about scale, not just conduct — a sign that what used to be a private judgment call has become an open pattern eroding public trust a little further with every cycle.

That’s the real cost of a standard nobody can pin down: not just unfairness in any one case, but the uncertainty it creates for everyone trying to plan ahead.

Business owners, investors, and employers feel this every time a decision in Richmond seems to turn less on the merits of a proposal than on who has the right relationships.

Strike Zone

Everyone’s watching the same game and calling a different strike zone — and that uncertainty isn’t just a political problem.

It’s a business cost, because capital and talent go where the rules are clear and stay away where they aren’t.

Baseball faced its own version of this for a century, with every umpire calling his own zone and players adjusting to each one’s quirks.

The zone had gotten slippery over the years, drifting with each umpire’s habits, and this year an automated system dialed the temperature back down.

It didn’t remove the umpire’s judgment — it gave everyone in the ballpark a fixed zone to check that judgment against.

The call is still made by a person, and when players challenge it, the umpire is upheld about half the time — the point was never that umpires are usually wrong.

One veteran ump summed up the psychological toll of being second-guessed by a camera:

it’s like your wife watching you parallel park — technically helpful, spiritually devastating.

But fans trust the calls more now, umpires have gotten sharper knowing every pitch can be checked, and there’s less arguing, not more.

Narrowing what counts as a strike served the game and the fans alike.

Clean Campaign Pledge

That’s the idea behind a Clean Campaign Pledge, and it’s worth being precise about what it is and isn’t.

This is not an attempt to police candidates — no outside group could do that job, and no one should want it to.

It’s an attempt to narrow the strike zone: to give the public, and candidates themselves, a clearer, shared sense of what’s in bounds, so the public can be better informed and engaged.

Narrow the zone enough, publicize it clearly enough, and something better than policing happens — candidates and incumbents start checking their own pitches before anyone else has to call it. Self-awareness of the standard does more than any outside enforcement ever could.

Scrutopia

There’s an old idea underneath this worth naming honestly.

No one is beyond mistakes, and the philosopher Roger Scruton argued that our civilization itself was built on the cornerstones of confession and forgiveness — the willingness to examine one’s own conduct against a known standard and be trusted again.

It’s no accident that the Catholic rite most people call confession is formally an examination of conscience: the value isn’t the penalty, it’s the habit of checking oneself before anyone else has to.

A Clean Campaign pledge asks for exactly that habit — not a courtroom, not a scorecard, but a standard clear enough that candidates can examine their own conduct against it and voters can see that they have.

It’s worth being honest about the limits, too. A strike zone is a physical fact, measured to a fraction of an inch; whether a fundraising call was coercive will never be that clean.

No pledge makes conduct self-executing, in politics or in commerce. What it can do is move the argument from private impressions to one shared text everyone agreed to beforehand — a real upgrade, short of perfect precision.

Not everyone will sign it, and that’s fine.

A pledge everyone signs reflexively isn’t really a standard — it’s a formality.

For those who decline, the honest ask isn’t a demand but an invitation: to say plainly, in their own words, how they intend to conduct themselves. Either way, the conversation moves from vague suspicion to a specific, statable standard — which is the point.

We’d rather none of this were necessary. Most candidates, and most business leaders, already conduct themselves honorably, and no pledge substitutes for that integrity.

But confidence in a state’s economy isn’t rebuilt by asking people to see more clearly on their own — it’s rebuilt by giving them more of the game to actually look at.

A political culture that runs on private impressions, and on the word brazen, can’t sustain the trust that investment, hiring, and long-term planning upon which we all depend.

The framers understood this better than we sometimes give them credit for. They didn’t promise a perfect union in the Constitution’s preamble — only a more perfect one, an ongoing correction rather than a finished state.

A Clean Campaign pledge asks for something far more modest, but in the same spirit, and its payoff runs past the ballot box: a political culture that plays it straight is also the foundation of a business climate people can plan around.

Not a verdict.

Not a guarantee.

Just a shared zone, more eyes on it, and a Commonwealth a little easier to trust and to build.

Virginia FREE Clean Campaign Pledge

A voluntary commitment to conducting campaigns and holding office with financial transparency and ethical independence.

Preamble

Virginia’s political system depends on candidates who can exercise independent judgment, on donors who can participate in the process without forfeiting their rights, and on a public that can trust both. This pledge asks candidates to commit to a standard of conduct — not to any position on a specific issue, industry, or donor.

By signing, a candidate affirms the following principles for how they will raise money, make decisions, and run their campaign.

1. Independent Judgment

• I will evaluate legislation, regulations, and policy questions on their merits, based on the best available facts and the interests of my constituents — not on the basis of who did or did not contribute to my campaign.

• I will not accept any contribution, offer of support, or endorsement that is conditioned — explicitly or implicitly — on a promise to vote a specific way on pending or future legislation.

• I will not treat any lawful contribution as creating an obligation to act against my own judgment or my constituents’ interests.

2. No Coercive or Retaliatory Fundraising Practices

• I will not solicit or accept support from any organization that conditions its assistance on my agreement to refuse contributions from lawful donors based solely on their employer, industry, or personal affiliations.

• I will not ask a donor to return or forfeit a lawful, properly disclosed contribution because of pressure from a third party — nor will I apply that kind of pressure to others.

• I will not participate in “pay-to-play” arrangements in which financial support is explicitly exchanged for a specific official action.

• I recognize that individuals do not forfeit their right to participate in the political process because of where they work, and I will not treat their contributions differently on that basis.

3. Financial Transparency

• I will file all campaign finance disclosures completely, accurately, and on time, as required by Virginia and/or federal law.

• I will disclose the true source of all contributions and will not knowingly accept funds that are being routed to obscure their origin.

• I will make my campaign’s funding sources reasonably accessible to voters and press upon request, beyond the legal minimum where practical.

4. Honest Campaign Conduct

• I will not knowingly make false statements about my record, my opponent’s record, or the facts of an issue in my campaign communications.

• I will correct the record promptly if my campaign publishes or distributes information later found to be false or materially misleading.

• I will not use manipulated media (including deceptively edited audio, video, or AI-generated content) to misrepresent an opponent’s words or actions.

5. Respect for Opponents and the Process

• I will conduct my campaign — and expect my staff and any coordinated efforts to conduct themselves — without personal attacks, threats, or harassment directed at opponents, their families, or their donors.

• I will not use or authorize threats of primary challenges, financial retaliation, or public pressure campaigns as a means of controlling how another candidate or officeholder votes.

• I will accept election outcomes determined by a fair and lawful process.

6. Accountability

• I understand this pledge is a public commitment, and I welcome scrutiny of my compliance with it.

• If I am found to have violated this pledge, I will acknowledge the specific violation publicly and take corrective action.

Candidate Signature: _______________________

Date: ____________

Office Sought: _______________________

District: ____________

This pledge is offered by Virginia FREE as a voluntary standard of conduct. Signing is not an endorsement by Virginia FREE of any candidate, party, or policy position, and non-signature does not constitute a Virginia FREE position on a candidate’s ethics.

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Click here to join the conversation :

https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/WW5rh2MVQkyu0-5C3cPMhQ

Topics:

1. National trends - Democratic Socialists - Fad or Trend

2. $40 TRILLION in US Debt

3. Virginia Midterms - How many GOP seats are in play?

4. 2028 Democratic Primary Schedule - Virginia joins the chat

5. Governor Spanberger polling - Adults v. Registered Voters

6. Next Era/Dominion Merger -

7. Job Losses but Revenue Growth?

8. Speaking of Data Centers….Loudoun County revenue tops $1.3 BILLION from them. That’s annual local tax revenue. #BuildSchools

Two odes to Ross Perot national campaign in 1992:

Pretenders saw the future…h/t Rush Limbaugh. (Up next week…Dan Ackroyd Blues Brothers rant from Dec. 1979)

I went back to Ohio
But my city was gone
There was no train station
There was no downtown
Somehow it had disappeared
All my favorite places
My city had been pulled down
Reduced to parking spaces

Hey, oh, way to go Ohio

I went back to Ohio
But my family was gone
I stood on the back porch
There was nobody home
I was stunned and amazed
My childhood memories
Sort of swirled past
Like the wind through the trees

Hey, oh, way to go Ohio

I went back to Ohio
But my pretty countryside
Had been paved down the middle
By a government that had no pride
The farms of Ohio
Had been replaced by shopping malls
And music filled the air
From Seneca to Cuyahoga Falls

Said hey, oh, way to go Ohio

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The first out was from the Wilder School at VCU - click here for that one.

Spanberger is at 44% Approval and 47% Disapproval or underwater by 3.

<cue gasp> Social media cut and pastings galore with headlines repeating GOP talking points.

As soon to be incoming British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan reminded the about to be sacked PM Sir Anthony Eden in the fabulous Netflix series The Crown:

There is no justice in politics.

Great line.

Fast forward off of the July VCU poll and Morning Consult released its polling on statewide electeds (Gov and US Senate) for every state and not surprisingly found a very different Approval/Disapproval for Spanberger.

Why not surprisingly?

VCU and Morning Consult use different methodologies

VCU polled Adults - which means anyone over 18 who answers the poll while Morning Consult polled Registered Voters.

Neither is technically wrong but neither is a campaign poll.

According to Morning Consult, Spanberger has a MUCH better Approval to Disapproval: 54 to 37 or plus 17.

That’s a 20 point swing from VCU and it didn’t happen over a month.

What’s remarkable about the Morning Consult poll is that Spanberger has a higher net approval rating among Democrats (+78) than U.S. Senators Mark Warner (+72) and Tim Kaine (+68) but lower among Independents.

Spanberger is only +8 while Warner is +25 and Kaine +15 among Independents. It’s also another reason why Warner appears to be cruising to re-election this fall.

That’s a number that should be more and more important going forward as more and more voters self identify as Independents.

Self Identification

The VCU poll had Self Identification at 37% Independent, 31% Democrat, and only 22% Republican. Again - among Adults, not Registered Voters.

Looking Ahead to Mid Terms - Future Markets

Senate - Toss Up

House - Flip to Democrats

Future Market - 2028 Nominations

AOC vs VP J.D. ?

Issue Coming to the 2028 Cycle? Social Security

Why? Insolvency comes in 2032 - the term of the current US Senate election.

Yes, the Kicked Can finds the end of road soon.

The Doors - The End

R.E.M - It’s the End of the World

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Click here to join the call:

https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/0AgVGV-_SpG0QdpIk0C9-g

Topics:

1. Virginia Primary Results

2. Key Virginia Matchups this fall

3. Toss Up U.S. Senate seats

4. Data Centers - Right Way v. Wrong Way

5. Dominion/Next Era Merger

6. 2029 Statewide Races already taking shape

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Songs from Top Albums in 1976

Isn’t She Lovely - Shout out to HRH Sloane Margaret Taylor next in line to the throne.

You might be cool but are you Buck Mann on keyboards cool? Probably not today. Really, the question is Do You Feel Like We Do?

If you think you are Buck Mann on keyboards about you just…

Ya know…Take It Easy

Or do you just need a great air guitar solo?

Gather the kids and grandkids and then JUST CRANK IT!

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https://www.perryforvirginia.com

He mentions two localities that are doing it “the right way” - Mecklenburg and Botetourt while taking aim at the underlying problem in Loudoun.

Delegate Reid has also made news on the topic of campaign integrity in his recent op-ed which is pasted below.

Read Delegate Reid’s op-ed in Cardinal News:

State legislator says Clean Virginia’s demands constitute ‘bullying and threats’ Del. David Reid of Loudoun County says the “transactional nature of the relationship” feels inappropriate.

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If you would like to schedule an interview simply email me at csaxman@vafree.org with some proposed dates, times, and topics.

If you run economic development for North Carolina, Florida, or Tennessee, CNBC’s #3 ranking for Virginia is good news.

Not just because their methodology is wrong (who knows? It changes every year), but because of what it does to us - it keeps us complacent and less willing to make the necessary changes in order to be competitive.

In 2023, Bloomberg ran a story about how in just two years 2.2 million people moved to the South.

Click here:

A $100 Billion Wealth Migration Tilts US Economy’s Center of Gravity South Some 2.2 million people moved to the Southeast in just over two years. That’s roughly the population of Houston.

It’s a long, informative article but for all the words, I found one missing:

Virginia.

There was no CNBC ranking in 2020 due to COVID but this is Virginia’s record since:

2021 - #1

2022 - #3 (cue gasp)

2023 - #2

2024 - #1

2025 - #4 (passes out)

2026 - #3

According to the Bloomberg article in 2021 and 2022, over 2,200,000 people move to the American South with $100,000,000,000.00 in tow.

Virginia was largely driven through or flown over.

To be fair to our beloved Commonwealth, Virginia has seen net international migration of over 40,000 in 2025 alone. This is largely due to growth in the tech sector - which many are now attacking - but it basically nets us out to minimal population growth. Another caveat - the incomes associated with that influx are also higher than the ones leaving.

Let’s be honest - last year North Carolina added Net Domestic Migration by over 85,000 and Tennessee added over 42,000.

So, yeah - their economic development departments must be loving our CNBC rankings, self-loving press releases, and myopic op-eds.

It gives Virginia a reason to stop looking at the one thing that actually predicts where business goes next: where people and money are already moving.

Every quarter Virginia spends celebrating #3 instead of reading its own migration data is a quarter competitors get to keep winning that argument uncontested.

Psychologists call the underlying failure Belief Perseverance: a belief survives contradiction even after the evidence behind it is gone.

Virginia’s version is worse than the textbook case, because the contradicting evidence didn’t arrive after the #3 and get explained away — it was published first.

The Virginia Manufacturers Association ranked the state #9 in manufacturing competitiveness, down from #7, in January 2026.

Chief Executive’s CEO survey put Virginia at #10 in April. Both existed months before CNBC’s July 9 ranking.

Virginia FREE’s own migration analysis, released July 13 using Census and IRS data, put Virginia at #36. Not top ten. Thirty-six.

Virginia’s #3 belief wasn’t left unrevised by later data — it was built on top of contradiction that already existed.

The wealth math underneath is its own warning.

Virginians who left the state in 2023 averaged $89,994 in income, versus $82,947 for those arriving — a gap that’s held every year since 2005. Florida is the single biggest destination for that departing wealth, at $118,662 a year on average.

Migration is the fastest, least-spinnable signal in economic development — it shows in near real time whether a state’s pitch is actually working.

Virginia’s #3 says the pitch is landing.

The migration data says otherwise, and has for years. A state that keeps citing the flattering composite while ignoring the revealed-preference data responds slowly to its own competitive erosion — exactly the condition a rival economic developer wants a target state to stay in.

Meanwhile, Virginia is adding cost at the precise moment resiliency should be the priority.

This year’s General Assembly passed several bills that will be adding to the Cost of Doing Business including a brand new paid family and medical leave program.

CNBC ranked Virginia #26 on Cost of Doing Business BEFORE that passed and they also rated us as #11 on Business Friendliness.

We added direct and compliance costs right as Virginia needs to be its most competitive — and they will not show up in a composite ranking until well after employers have already felt them.

That cost is landing on a state with less room to absorb it than the #3 headline suggests.

The federal government — Virginia’s largest single customer — is carrying $39.5 trillion in debt, headed past $40 trillion this fall, and Virginia’s own CNBC economy score already slipped from #14 to #23 this year on federal workforce and budget cuts.

Blame the president all you want - it’s legit - but it should underscore a flashing red light warning of an unsustainable reliance on federal government spending.

The 2013 sequestration cuts hit no state harder, concentrated in the same Northern Virginia region now leading the state in domestic-migration losses.

And the data center tax exemption fight this spring — a months-long standoff over whether Virginia would unilaterally alter a signed incentive agreement — did reputational damage with site selectors that no ranking has caught up to yet, win or lose.

So, what’s the Call to Action?

First off - this is not a knock on either party or any governor as I have been warning about CNBC’s rankings for close to a decade.

This is a call to stop pretending #3 means Virginia can absorb new cost, federal exposure, and reputational uncertainty without a plan that is honest about the real challenges we face. That plan must be flexible to match the velocity of change occurring globally.

Real resiliency looks like this: read migration and CEO-survey data as the operating scorecard, not the composite.

Model the compliance cost of this year’s new mandates against the states actually winning the migration numbers.

Build a federal-dependence diversification plan now, while there’s runway, not after the next sequestration.

And stop letting a beat-the-press-release number set the pace of a response that market behavior has already been demanding for years.

Our competitors are counting on Virginia not doing any of that.

The only real question is how long we intend to prove them right.

Yeah, the CNBC #3 ranking matters - but in which direction?

Better sleep with one eye open, folks.

Best version - h/t Hokies!

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Click here to register: https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/mZJhwHVEQYiQXtQxfN1K0w

Topics:

1. CNBC Top States for Business Ranking - is Virginia REALLY #3? No.

2. Migration Ranking Comparisons

3. VCU Wilder poll - Spanberger, Data Centers, and more!

4. Midterm update

I asked a leading business investor who owns multiple businesses - multiple sectors with tens of thousands of employees about CNBC Quality of Life category (see below)

He was pejorative about CNBC being too political but also observed something of note on the younger workers surveyed who prefer states with more liberal positions on reproductive and voting rights along with more expensive policies on wage and paid leave etc:

their analysis is so biased and superficial that they’re missing the fact that a number of younger people’s tasks at work are being displaced by AI / business process management such that young people had better start worrying about their ability to get a job and a lot less whether they are able to get four day weekends working from home

Mid Term Polling

Dems +5 but with lower favorability?

Brace yourself for negative ads.

Voting early lessens the intensity as you will be taken off the hit lists.

Screenshot of CNBC Quality of Life ranking

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Population Shifts

Top Ten CNBC Best States to Live

Population Shift for CNBC’s Best States to Live?

29,040 moved into the their Top Ten States.

86,681 moved out.

Net: Loss of 57, 641

Top Ten CNBC Worst States to Live

Population Shift for CNBC’s WORST States to Live

14,387 moved out of just one state - Louisiana.

225,898 moved INTO the other NINE.

Net: GAIN of 211,511

Coming tomorrow- Where Virginia Ranks in Net Migration of People and Money

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Top 17 States for Population and AGI Gain

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Two metrics - where people and money are going - tell me what the market is actually doing.

Here are some operative pop culture references to help make my point:

1. Yogi Berra on why he doesn't go to a famous St. Louis restaurant:

   “Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."

2. Billy Beane in Moneyball

   “If he’s a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?

3. Big Tom Callahan in Tommy Boy

   "In auto parts, you're either growing or you're dying. There ain't no third direction."

Why just two metrics? Well, it’s objective, data centric, and easy to understand.

Let’s look at how those two metrics work out.

Do with it what you will.

<drumroll>

And the Top 17 States for Business are…

Where People and Money Are Going

Two different scoreboards

This analysis combines two datasets:

• People: latest Census Bureau net domestic migration, July 2024–June 2025 (Vintage 2025 population estimates).

• Money: latest IRS interstate migration data, measuring the adjusted gross income (AGI) carried by taxpayers who moved between states, filing years 2022–2023.

The datasets cover different periods because IRS income data arrive with a lag.

Taken together, the pattern is clear: the South is leading both scoreboards.

The real story:

The Carolinas have Big Mo - mentum

The most interesting development is not Texas or Florida — it’s the emergence of North Carolina and South Carolina.

North Carolina added more domestic migrants than any state in the country in the latest Census year (84,064).

South Carolina posted the highest percentage population growth of any state (1.5%) and ranked third in raw numeric domestic migration.

The Carolinas increasingly combine the advantages that once drove the Florida and Texas booms: comparatively affordable housing, attractive smaller cities, strong job markets, and business growth.

Florida’s numbers may be even more important

Florida fell to eighth in current domestic migration (+22,517), down sharply from its post-pandemic peak (it gained over 300,000 net domestic migrants as recently as 2022).

Yet it attracted more than $20 billion in net annual adjusted gross income from interstate movers — nearly four times Texas’s gain, and the largest AGI inflow of any state by a wide margin.

Not all migrants are economically equal: a state can attract 80,000 new residents while another attracts a quarter as many people carrying substantially more income and investment capacity.

The Virginia angle

Virginia does not make the top third on either scoreboard. I will release that later.

Yeah, we need to talk.

And it’s not one of those good “we need to talk” talks.

And it’s not about Democrats or Republicans - I have criticized CNBC’s methodology for years regardless of who’s in office.

North Carolina, Tennessee, and South Carolina are increasingly Virginia’s most important economic competitors — not just for corporate relocations, but for the human and financial capital that seeds future businesses.

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<Shocked Face Emoji>

From the article:

China, Russia and, to a lesser extent, Iran have sought to use state media outlets to turn the controversy over data centers in the United States into “a domestic fracture point,” according to a new analysis by Alethea, a threat intelligence company, which identified scores of articles and posts on social media this year.

Hmmm…

Now why would China, Russia, Iran and other countries want US fighting with each other?

Is it though?

From the Althea report (linked HERE):

Data centers are the current target, but they’re also a preview of a repeatable playbook: local opposition, hijacked and amplified by foreign state actors into a national narrative.

Any industry that becomes the center of the next hyperlocal fight should expect the same tactics, which is why what’s happening to data centers right now is worth studying well beyond this one sector.

Rinse and Repeat.

A lot of folks out there are scoring early political points taking easy whacks at the political piñatas that are data centers and AI, but THE FUTURE is the digital economy.

Fear sells. Always has and always will.

One of the many lessons of being directly involved in politics for the last <checks calendar> <hits calculator> 34 years, is that the first Punch delivered is rarely, if ever, the knockout blow.

It’s almost always the Counter Punch that decides.

Reports like these show clearly that you can bludgeon political candy filled paper mache made piñatas to entertain the party kiddos, but those same kids are staring down a loaded double barrel shotgun of a fiscal and monetary MESS that’s no laughing matter.

Or are we missing something?

“But the stock market!” - you say?

Yeah, candy filled…

Did I stutter?

If you print money, it WILL go somewhere. It HAS to.

Money, like water, flows to a path of least resistance.

So does Bravo Sierra on social media.

We should have substantive, honest conversations about the future and what will build it so that we can decide the best future for our kids and grand kids.

Lee Iacocca famously said, “Lead, follow, or get out of the way.”

Sage advice for the next generation of electeds.

(looking at you, Gen Xers)

LL? What you got for us?

Yo, Adrian!

Just Win, Baby!

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